Episode 1062: Mum's the Met
Date May 26, 2017 Summary Ben Lindbergh and Jeff Sullivan answer listener emails about performance in interleague games, how rising strikeout rates affect defense, the “foul pole” vs. the “fair pole,” the worst best player on a major league team, Terry Collins’ injury gag order, the best control pitcher of our era, “doubles up the middle,” strikeout terminology, the worst pitchers ever, a Barry Bonds fun fact, what makes baseball leaderboards interesting, a starter bait-and-switch, and more. Topics * Jose Barrios * Clayton Kershaw's interleague stats * Defensive skills in the high strikeout era * Terminology - foul pole * Worst 'best' players * New York Mets injuries * Worst pitchers by OPS+ and HR against * Barry Bonds * Terminology - doubling up the middle * Josh Tomlin * Handedness and sportsmanship * What makes a baseball list interesting? Intro Yo La Tengo, "Don’t Say a Word" Outro Led Zeppelin, "D’yer Mak’er" Banter * The Twins finally have a 2nd good player. * The Mets told Terry Collins he can no longer talk about injuries. Email Questions * Anthony: "So Jeff mentioned Friday that Kershaw's ERA was better in interleague games, which seems fluky given that the AL is better and some of those were on the road, so no pitcher hitting and all. I was wondering, though (I don't know if there's anywhere I can search this), if pitchers are generally better in interleague play because hitters are less likely to be familiar with them. I remember reading a quote from Neil Huntington on Francisco Liriano after the trade to Toronto, where he mentioned that a move to the AL was in the player's best interest, because the NL had "figured him out" or something along those lines." * Jamie: "Is the rise in strikeouts (and the fall in balls being put in play) correlated to the importance of defense? In other words, if more strikeouts mean fewer opportunities in the field, have / will / should we see defensive skills being relatively less sought after? I guess the effect won't be huge, but it seems like if opposition teams are putting - say - 5 fewer balls into play per game, then it is simply less valuable to have a really good defensive shortstop - and possibly by a non-trivial amount. Is there any evidence that teams have marginally emphasized defense because of this trend? Will they? Should they? Could we even tell if they were? How high would the league-wide K% have to be before teams would start mostly ignoring defense all together?" * Zach: "This is a small question that was mentioned as a brief aside by Michael Schur on a recent Poscast (the one where they drafted sports rules), but it's been a couple hours and I'm still thinking about it: When the ball hits the foul pole, it's ruled a fair ball. So, why is it a foul pole and not a fair pole? Does this date back to the days when home runs were extremely scarce? Is this something linguistic where "foul" is a more parallel pronunciation to "pole" than "fair"? Is it seen as an extension of the foul line (which could be called a fair line anyway)? It just seems like if the ball hits a line and the ball is deemed fair, the name of that line should be the fair line/pole." * Scott (Philadelphia, PA): "Recently, my friend and I had a discussion about the best player on each team which devolved into which team has the worst best player. Virtually every legitimate contender had someone who removed them from the discussion. Additionally, some mediocre teams were stricken from the debate because of a single bright spot (Freeman on the Braves, Votto on the Reds, etc.). Curious to hear your thoughts on the worst best player. P.S. The exercise wasn't meant to be mean-spirited, as Carson Cistulli loves to point out, every single one of these guys is better at baseball than I will ever be at literally anything." * Josh: "So far this season Mike Trout has a .458 OBP through 166 PA. Alcides Escobar , who has been a full time starter for the last seven seasons, has a .438 OPS! Through 163 PA. My question is, to start a season, what is the longest number of PA into the season , where another full time major leaguer, has a higher OBP, than another full time player's OPS. “In 2002, Barry Bonds finished the season with a .582 OBP, and Neifi Perez finished the season with a .564 OPS. Perez had 585 PA.” * Joe: I recall baseball scenarios in TV shows being discussed on the show at length. I read one in a Tom Clancy book and it mad"e me stop and think, rather confusedly."Then Derek Jeter doubled up the middle." When I think "double," up-the-middle is far from the first thing I consider. And when I think "up the middle," the mental image I conjure up is one of a chopper or ground ball through the middle. Maybe he meant a line drive over the head of the CF. But then why not say that? I can't really recall any doubles up the middle, aside from someone winding up at 2B taking the extra base on the throw. But that's not a double. Maybe the author considered the portion of the gap closest to center as up-the-middle? Do doubles-up-the-middle happen often? Are there ways to figure it out? Has the re2pected Jeter ever actually doubled up the middle in a chopper/gb fashion? They're all line drives in the scorebook, or so the saying goes. I thank you in advance if you are willing and able to put my mind at ease." * Tom: "Here's a stupid terminology question: can you really call striking someone out looking "fanning" them? Wouldn't it have to be a swinging strikeout? Saw this used in twitter about that Berrios Strikeout and it bothered me. Would love to hear your thoughts." * Ryan: "As I often do, I was looking at Fangraphs leaderboards this morning searching for anything of note. I was looking at all sorts of stats, from pitch values, to FIP, to quality-of-contact percentages, when I stumbled upon an interesting find. Going back to 1900, if you take starting pitchers with 500 or more career innings pitched and sort them by walk rate, you get the following pitchers. In first, with a 1.11 BB/9, you get Cy Young. Second, with 1.17 is turn-of-the-century Pirate Deacon Phillipe. Third, with 1.28, is the lesser-Babe, Babe Adams. And in fourth, with a 1.32, is Indians Ace Josh Tomlin. So is Tomlin the greatest control pitcher of our generation?" * Dylan: "How's this for a hypothetical? A team announces that a lefty is slated to start in a big game. The opposing team then stacks their lineup with righties to gain an advantage. But the first team, unbeknownst to everyone, has a right-hander prepare for the start himself, going through all the traditional pre-game warmups as if he were the slated starter. That team then throws the lefty for the first batter and then promptly takes him out for the righty. The opposing lineup is already set and stacked with righties so now the RHP has an advantage. What stops teams from doing this occasionally? Especially for a playoff game or important regular season game?" * Cory: "This is a sort of philosophical question about baseball podcasting. Baseball fandom is full of leaderboard-type lists. Some of these lists are interesting (say, the pitchers who have given up the most first-career-hits) and some are not (say, the pitchers who have given up the most doubles during Tuesday day games with bobblehead promotions). This reminds me a bit of the "interesting number paradox." Here's the puzzle. Suppose that there are some numbers which are not interesting. If so, one of them is the smallest of the non-interesting numbers. But that distinction makes it interesting, which contradicts our supposition. So, all numbers are interesting. One might run a similar argument for baseball lists. Suppose there is a boring leaderboard. Nonetheless, someone is at the top of that leaderboard, and that's interesting. The fallacy that gives rise to this paradox is that being distinctive isn't the same as being interesting. So, while grouping items in a list does give those items new relational properties with respect to other members on the list, not all of those new properties are necessarily interesting ones. So, my question for you is, what do you think makes a baseball list interesting to podcast about? The easy answer is that interests vary from person to person, but there is enough overlap for there to be a thriving community of fans who like thinking about this sort of thing. Where do you think the overlap is, and what explains it?" Stat Blast * Who are the worst pitchers when considering home runs allowed and OPS+ against? * MIke Fiers has allowed the most home runs this year (3.64 home runs per 9). * Dillon Overton has allowed 4.44 hr/9 which is most ever and has highest OPS+ against with at least 100 batters faced (241). * Steve Geltz has highest rate of home runs per batter faced (9.8% of opps). * Highest OPS+ against a minimum of 150 is Tim Lincecum (211) Notes * Will Myers is the best player on worst team by WAR Links * Effectively Wild Episode 1062: Mum's the Met * Apparently Terry Collin's Can't Talk About Mets' Injuries Anymore by Fred Kerber * For Jered Weaver, end coming not with a bang but a whimper by Sam Miller Category:Episodes Category:Email Episodes